High and low production regimes are in principle different enough as to warrant the use of regime–specific models for the prediction of wind energy production. The simplest way to identify them may be the use of concrete wind/production thresholds. The computation of these thresholds requires an estimate of the most likely future regime and in this work we consider both NWP wind speed forecasts and also the production forecasts of a global full operation range model. As we shall illustrate over the aggregated wind energy production of a very large area of Spain, a production threshold–based approach gives consistently better results than the alternative, wind speed based, procedure.